In the high-growth scenario, the industry RPK is projected to reach 21.9 trillion in 2050 from the 9 trillion seen in 2024, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2024 to 2050. Under this scenario, we expect global economic expansion to be driven by high labor efficiency, robust capital stock growth, and rapid technological progress. Price for aviation fuel is assumed to decline over time, and countries are expected to actively invest in building new airports to address the capacity constraints faced by the airline industry. However, this scenario reflects a “business-as-usual” trajectory where decarbonisation merely maintains its historical pace (at zero mitigation cost), falling short of the Paris Agreement’s net zero targets. The airline industry is assumed to remain almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels through 2050, and the carbon-based sources still comprise three-quarters of the global primary energy mix by mid-century.
